AFCON 2023: Hosts Out to Avoid Shock Elimination

Equatorial Guinea vs Ivory Coast

An AFCON 2023 shock is on the horizon unless the hosts of the tournament can get into gear quickly.

Ivory Coast simply have to defeat Equatorial Guinea on home soil on Monday if they are to guarantee staying in the competition.

Failure to do so is unthinkable, especially against a nation ranked 88^th in the world.

So, while AFCON 2023 highlights will be largely anticipated amongst the vast majority inside the Alassane Ouattara Stadium in Abidjan, there will be no room for complacency.

Talking Points

Progress seemed so much more straightforward when Ivory Coast sank Guinea-Bissau to get the tournament up and running in front of an expectant 60,000 crowd.

Then they suffered a setback as they went down to Nigeria on Thursday.

With Equatorial Guinea defeating Guinea-Bissau 4-2, helped by an Emilio Nsue hat-trick, it means the pressure is all on the home side going into the contest.

Many, myself included, thought they would break away from the Super Eagles and have sealed their place in the knockout stages by now. But here we are and all the onus is on the beaten finalists from 2019.

Their firepower is most impressive with Seko Fofana, Jean-Philippe Krasso, Jeremie Boga, Nicolas Pepe, Simon Adingra, Jonathan Bamba, and Sebastien Haller all potential threats, although the latter is yet to feature in the tournament and a decision will need to be made on his fitness.

Simon Adingra must be a doubt and could face a fitness test, while Serge Aurier also came off against Nigeria, though it is not clear if that was due to injury.

In the Nigeria defeat, the three-time African champions switched from a back four to a five-man defence, and the Elephants fashioned very few opportunities so I would not be surprised if they revert to a back four for this must-win encounter.

As for Equatorial Guinea, Juan Micha’s men need a point from Monday’s clash to secure a spot in the first knockout round.

Pablo Ganet was substituted in the triumph over Guinea-Bissau, possibly ruling out the midfielder against the host nation.

Having avoided defeat since losing 4-0 to Tunisia in qualifying, they will be looking to extend their 13-game unbeaten run.

If they can halt the competition hosts, it will be one of the biggest surprises in recent AFCON history.

History

The nations have met three times, twice in this competition – in 2012 and 2022, along with a friendly in 2015. Both contests went the way of the Ivory Coast.

A quarter-final encounter 12 years ago was won 3-0, courtesy of goals from two of their finest ever players in Didier Drogba (two) and Yaya Toure.

A friendly three years later in Abidjan ended 1-1, but it was back to form in the 2022 AFCON with a group encounter settled by a goal from captain Max Gradel after just five minutes.

Betting Tip

After the first matches, Ivory Coast were favourites to top Group A priced at 1.40 compared to Nigeria at 3.00, Equatorial Guinea at 17.00, and real underdogs Guinea Bissau at 51.00. That has changed somewhat now.

Even still, it’s hard to bet against Ivory Coast in this and that is reflected in the SBOTOP AFCON 2023 betting odds where they are available First Half 1X2 @ 1.90, 1X2 @ 1.33, First Half Asian Handicap -0.50 @ 1.90, and Asian Handicap -1.25 @ 1.89.

The contrast could barely be clearer when you consider Equatorial Guinea are on offer First Half 1X2 @ 7.00, 1X2 @ 7.40, First Half Asian Handicap +0.50 @ 1.92, and Asian Handicap +1.00 @ 2.25.

A repeat of their meeting in the tournament two years ago is available with Correct Score 1-0 @ 4.52.

Their previous three meetings have always produced at least one goal which may be worth bearing in mind when you look at Total Goal 0-1 @ 2.79, 2-3 @ 1.90, 4-6 @ 3.97, and Over 2.25 @ 1.92. I simply cannot see beyond Ivory Coast from early on.

 

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